The cement industry is a cornerstone of global infrastructure development, and its pricing trends are closely monitored by stakeholders across construction, real estate, and policymaking sectors. As of April 2025, the industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, capacity expansions, and macroeconomic factors. This article provides an in-depth analysis of cement prices, incorporating real-time data, historical context, market drivers, and future forecasts to offer a comprehensive understanding of the current state and outlook of the cement market.
Historical Overview: Cement Price Movements (2020–2024)
Over the past five years, cement prices have experienced significant volatility:
- 2020–2021: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary decline in construction activities, causing a dip in cement demand and prices.
- 2022: A resurgence in infrastructure projects and housing demand post-pandemic contributed to a rebound in cement prices.
- 2023: Prices stabilized due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with regional variations influenced by local construction activities.
- 2024: The first half of the fiscal year witnessed a notable decline in cement prices, attributed to weak demand and increased competition from substantial supply additions by major companies. According to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), cement prices declined around 7% year-on-year in April–January FY25.
Regional Price Variations in India
Cement prices in India have shown regional disparities
- Southern Region: Experienced the sharpest contraction due to oversupply.
- Eastern Region: Also faced significant price declines, influenced by similar oversupply issues.
- Western Region: Saw a moderate increase in prices, with a rise of ₹5–10 per 50 kg bag in December 2024, driven by increased demand in real estate and infrastructure sectors.
- Northern and Central Regions: Witnessed price hikes of ₹8–11 per bag in December 2024, despite a sluggish demand environment.
Key Market Factors Influencing Cement Prices
Several factors have played pivotal roles in shaping cement price trends:
- Demand-Supply Dynamics: The mismatch between supply and demand, especially with large capacity additions by leading companies, has exerted downward pressure on prices.
- Infrastructure Spending: Government expenditure on infrastructure projects significantly impacts cement demand. A subdued pickup in the union government’s capital expenditure after general elections led to a 12% year-on-year fall in infrastructure demand during April–November FY25.
- Consolidation in the Industry: Major players like UltraTech Cement, Adani Cement, Shree Cement, and Dalmia Bharat have been acquiring smaller companies, leading to increased competition and influencing pricing strategies.
- Seasonal Factors: Construction activities typically pick up post-monsoon and during festive seasons, leading to sequential price increases, as observed from November 2024 onwards.
Expert Commentary
Tushar Bharambe, AVP & Sector Head – Corporate Ratings at ICRA, notes that “cement volumes are expected to pick up in H2FY2025 backed by likely increase in rural consumption aided by improved farm cash flows, sustained healthy demand for urban housing, and expected increase in government spending on infrastructure projects.
Future Market Forecasts
Looking ahead, the cement industry is poised for moderate growth.
- Volume Growth: ICRA anticipates all-India cement volumes to grow by 4–5% year-on-year to 445–450 million metric tons in FY2025.
- Capacity Additions: The industry is estimated to add around 70–75 million metric tons of grinding capacity during FY2025–FY2026, which may continue to influence pricing dynamics.
- Pricing Outlook: While prices have increased sequentially since November 2024, the overall pricing environment is expected to remain weak due to large capacity additions and competitive pressures.
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